Dems split primaries

In the next installment of the never-ending-story between Obama and Clinton, they each managed to pick up the “must win” states to keep both campaigns alive.

However, the news is a little more than what it seems.  Obama’s win in North Carolina was convincing, winning the state by something like 14% according to the BBC.  Clinton, on the other hand, only edged out Obama in Indiana by 2%.  This suggests that Obama is still doing well and is inching closer to clinching the nomination.

The delegate count is now even harder for Clinton to overcome, with Obama sitting at 1,840 and Clinton at 1,684.  This means that Obama is only 200 delegates away from the nomination.

The voters in these states still split along racial lines, though more so in the black vote than the white.  Obama got 91 and 92 percent of the black vote in Indiana and North Carolina respectively, while getting 40 percent and 36 percent of the white vote in those states.  Although this is far from conclusive in any way, it does suggest that Clinton is finding it harder to make inroads with black voters than Obama is with white.

Also, despite the fact that the Reverend Wright controversy refuses to die, it doesn’t seem to really be holding Obama back.   Voters say they’re even split between caring about Wright and not, with half saying it was important to their decision.

The most shocking event was the immediate defection of former Senator George McGovern.  He ran for the democratic party nomination many years ago and knows the business pretty well.  Up until now he has supported Clinton, but just after these primaries he publicly switched his support to Obama.  The Guradian is now reporting that this may open the floodgates of defections from the Clinton camp.  Although this same prediction comes out over and over again, this may be the death knell for Clinton.  Since mathematically it’s actually impossible for her to win without overturning the popular vote and stealing the superdelegates, it seems as if people would be quite upset with her for continuing to run.  But continue she does.  She just lent her campaign another $6.4 million to continue fighting on.  But the more impossible this race becomes, the less likely people are to donate.

It almost seems hopeless.  And although I’m sure both are capable of leading the nation, I think that the longer the in-fighting continues, the worse either of their chances are against McCain.

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