Real Clear Politics, a site I honestly am not so familiar with has put up a startling poignant about just who should be chosen to be Obama’s VP running mate. Obviously this is assuming Obama wins the nomination, but realistically he probably will.
Despite Clinton’s…reluctance to concede the nomination, Obama recently took the lead in nearly absolute terms. Above and beyond his lead in pledged delegates he has recently had some of Clinton’s superdelegates to his side, giving him the lead overall.
Now all the political pundits are saying that Clinton is going all out to at least receive the VP nod. RCP ‘s Gerald Pomper (who is also Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers) makes the claim that Clinton would not actually be that useful to Obama. Rightly so, Pomper notes that Clinon’s strength with women voters isn’t that important. Women have often overwhelmingly supported the democratic nominee, so it is not likely that their votes would be lost without Clinton present. However, Clinton’s big strength to Obama is with blue collar workers and hispanic voters.
So, Pomper goes so far as to say that Sen. Jim Webb, the junor senator from Virginia. He is, in essence, the Republican’s worst enemy. Obama’s eloquence and strength with intellectuals and white collar voters is important. His mere presence is inspiring. Webb, on the other hand, brings a lot of experience to the table. Webb is a Vietnam vet who was actually wounded in battle (thus avoiding the Swift Boating that toppled Kerry) and was actually the Secretary of the Navy at one point. This rather extensive foreign policy/military experience would be a huge advantage to Obama. The biggest criticism people make of him is his general lack of experience. Having a war veteran and slightly more experienced legislator on your side can’t hurt.
Pomper makes this argument:
“Webb also would bring specific political advantages to the Democratic ticket. His rural roots, vigorous language and championing of working class values would compensate for Obama’s evident weaknesses among these voters. Webb provides a populist platform on corporate regulation, trade, taxation and health care that would further extend the party’s appeal to its lower-income base. Born in Missouri, educated in Nebraska, California and the Naval Academy in Maryland, he encapsulates a national electoral appeal. Finally, to the limited extent that state residence matters, he would help to switch Virginia into the Democratic column for the first election since 1964.”
All-in-all it’s a pretty convincing argument. Not that we have anything against Hillary, but I think that we shouldn’t be blinded by the progressive message a Obama-Clinton ticket would send. They are both extremely capable, but it’s important to remember that there may be other things to consider when making a VP choice. If Obama wins the nomination, he should be focusing on what would beat McCain in the fall, and not fear the fallout of snubbing Clinton.
In the next installment of the never-ending-story between Obama and Clinton, they each managed to pick up the “must win” states to keep both campaigns alive.
However, the news is a little more than what it seems. Obama’s win in North Carolina was convincing, winning the state by something like 14% according to the . Clinton, on the other hand, only edged out Obama in Indiana by 2%. This suggests that Obama is still doing well and is inching closer to clinching the nomination.
The delegate count is now even harder for Clinton to overcome, with Obama sitting at 1,840 and Clinton at 1,684. This means that Obama is only 200 delegates away from the nomination.
The voters in these states still split along racial lines, though more so in the black vote than the white. Obama got 91 and 92 percent of the black vote in Indiana and North Carolina respectively, while getting 40 percent and 36 percent of the white vote in those states. Although this is far from conclusive in any way, it does suggest that Clinton is finding it harder to make inroads with black voters than Obama is with white.
Also, despite the fact that the Reverend Wright controversy refuses to die, it doesn’t seem to really be holding Obama back. Voters say they’re even split between caring about Wright and not, with half saying it was important to their decision.
The most shocking event was the immediate defection of former Senator George McGovern. He ran for the democratic party nomination many years ago and knows the business pretty well. Up until now he has supported Clinton, but just after these primaries he publicly switched his support to Obama. is now reporting that this may open the floodgates of defections from the Clinton camp. Although this same prediction comes out over and over again, this may be the death knell for Clinton. Since mathematically it’s actually impossible for her to win without overturning the popular vote and stealing the superdelegates, it seems as if people would be quite upset with her for continuing to run. But continue she does. She just lent her campaign another $6.4 million to continue fighting on. But the more impossible this race becomes, the less likely people are to donate.
It almost seems hopeless. And although I’m sure both are capable of leading the nation, I think that the longer the in-fighting continues, the worse either of their chances are against McCain.
I kid you not. All three of these Democrat politicians made their appearance on the Colbert Report on April 17.
It’s no secret that Colbert has been actively courting to try and get Obama to appear on the program, even asking his wife Michelle on air if she would help. He finally got his wish (kind of). Following the Democrat debate in Philadelphia (arguably one of the worst run debates in television history), the candidates were already in town so Colbert took advantage.
The first appearance was by . The scene was that Colbert’s background screen was on the fritz, and all of the technicians were missing. So he stood up and asked:
“Are you telling me there is no one in this theater who can fix the mess we’re in?” Colbert cried out.
“I can,” Clinton said as she strolled onstage
An interesting and pretty amusing little scenario, with Clinton seeming pretty comfortable. It wasn’t as self-deprecating as I was hoping, but at least she managed to poke a little fun at herself. She told Colbert he could call her anytime, .
Next up is John Edwards. He delivered exactly what I was hoping for. A pretty comic spin at his own fallacies and the democratic race as a whole. He made light of the fact that both campaigns were actively seeking his endorsement, and jokingly said that he’d need at least 2 jetskis for his vote, among other things. The only video I could find of the the show was of Edwards’ guest appearance delivering The Word (or as he called it, the EdWords). Check it out below.
Lastly, Barack Obama via video conference from another rally he was at. He was in pretty good spirits overall, and managed to make a solid point about the manufactured political distractions that he had spoken of at the previous nights debate. He even went so far to, Colbert style, put these distractions on notice.
Below is the transcript:
Obama: “Stephen, these distractions they won’t help us fix our economy, they won’t help get people health care. They won’t get us out of Iraq. Stephen, I would go so far as to say I want to put these political distractions on notice.”
Colbert: “What!?”
Obama: “Boys, bring out the on notice board.”
Colbert. “Senator, I have to warn you, I probably don’t have a card for distractions.”
Colbert sifted through a card-box, saying, “Let me I see, I’ve got Dionne Warwick, Deion Sanders, Dion comma Celine, Dirigibiles, There we go! Distractions!
“Okay senator, uh, something’s gonna have to come off, what should I remove?”
Obama: “Well it can’t be grizzly bears, they are the number one threat to America.”
Colbert: “Good man.”
Obama: “I think we should take off James Brady, he’s a good guy.”
Colbert: “All right, Brady. This is your lucky day. Okay here we go. Distractions, I hope you’re paying attention….Wham! How’s that taste?”
Obama: “Manufactured, manufactured political distractions, you are officially on notice.”
Those of you in the US may be able to check out clips from the show on the page.
According to his Facebook , Barack Obama is a fan of legendary ’90s super-group The Fugees! If you were wavering before (and are a 4080reader), this alone should clinch it for you. Even ten years ago it would have been political suicide for a presidential candidate to publically reveal he or she listened to hip-hop, let alone consider a rap group among his/her favourite musicians (can you imagine Bill Clinton revealing he was a fan of, say, Public Enemey in 1991?). Also on Obama’s list are Miles Davis, John Coltrane, Bob Dylan, Stevie Wonder and Johan Sebastian Bach. Our boy has an impressive, if not eclectic, taste in music.
On list? Carly Simon, Aretha Franklin, the Rolling Stones and U2. Not bad, although I’d give the edge to Obama so far.
How about ? Nothing! He lists his favourite movies (“Viva Zapata,” “Letters From Iwo Jima” and “Some Like It Hot” (seriously?)), books (“For Whom The Bell Tolls”) and tv shows (“24″ and “Seinfeld”), but a list of favourite music is strangely missing. Does the Republican nominee not listen to music? Or perhaps his taste is so strange his handlers are afraid to reveal it to Facebookers? Interesting.
Finally, how about , that plucky underdog who, for the longest time, refused to quit the race? Dude is a fan of ! Sold!
I bet nearly all of you are aware of the death-match that the two Democratic presidential contenders are caught up in.
It’s amazing how bad things have gotten over the last little while. As the race picked up and more and more of the rest of the field began dropping out, things really came to a head in South Carolina. That seems to be the point where the racial baggage caught up to the campaigns and things really started to go sour.
From then on, voters were faced with an increasingly vitrolic campaign. One side accusing the other of the stupidest little transgressions. Both of them…exaggerating their accomplishments at times. Most notably, you all probably remember Clinton going on the offensive several times, accusing Obama of , or of in his mailings, his role as the University of Chicago (he didn’t.) and then came the whole Reverend Wright scandal. On the other hand, Obama’s been pushing back, calling Clinton out about her “” regarding her trip to Bosnia.
All of those are stories in and of themselves, but the latest news seems to be gripping the political community tightly. Recently, increasing amounts of people seem to be calling for Hillary to drop out due to the fact that she stands very little chance of beating Obama in terms of pledged delegates. The Democratic Party’s are all that stand between Obama and the nomination. These superdelegates are not encumbered with the results of the primaries, and can actually vote however they want. They consist of very important people from all over the US. Governors, party bigwigs, that sort of thing.
Nancy Pelosi, the current speaker of the House, decided it was wise to voice her opinion on the whole matter. She came out and stated that superdelegates should respect the popular vote, and cast their votes accordingly. That way, if Clinton has more primary votes, the superdelegates should respect it and vote for her. The thing is, it’s pretty much impossible for Hillary to catch up in terms of the popular vote, especially if the Florida and Michigan delegates are not seated. Since the race is so tight between Obama and Clinton, there’s no way one of them will get enough pledged delegates to actually win. That’s why the superdelegates are just so damn important.
Clinton was obviously mad. Since she probably won’t get enough regular delegates, having someone ask the superdelegates to not vote as they want and instead follow the pledged delegates, is tantamount to endorsing Obama. So her backers, some of the most influential names in the Democratic Party (and especially some of the biggest financial backers) decided it was a good idea to ‘warn’ Pelosi.
20 of them sent Pelosi a implicitly threatening to withhold their financial backing from the Party. These 20 people had given $24 million to the party in the last year.
“We have been strong supporters of the DCCC,” the group wrote in its letter to Pelosi. “We therefore urge you to clarify your position on super-delegates and reflect in your comments a more open view to the optional independent actions of each of the delegates at the National Convention in August.”
This is just god-awful reasoning and a terrible publicity move. The most damaging thing possible would be for the superdelegates to overturn the popular vote because it suggest to the American voters that their vote does not matter. If my vote was overturned so that unaccountable “superdelegates” chose whoever they wanted, I probably wouldn’t vote for them in the general election.
This implied threat has already caused a pretty big backlash in the Democratic party. Obama supporters are up in arms, and the reputably influential blog MoveOn.org has come straight out out and essentially declared war against the Clinton backers. In their , sent out to MoveOn supporters, CNN says this about what they had to say:
“It’s the worst kind of insider politics — billionaires bullying our elected leaders into ignoring the will of the voters,” wrote organizers in an e-mail to the group’s members. “But when we all pool our resources, together we’re stronger than the fat cats. So let’s tell Nancy Pelosi that if she keeps standing up for regular Americans, thousands of us will have her back. And we can more than match whatever the CEOs and billionaires refuse to contribute.”
Unreal. No one wins in a situation like this, besides John McCain. So hopefully they can sort this out. In truth, superdelegates seem like a pretty bad idea. The whole point of the primary is to let the rank-and-file of a party pick their candidate. To go through this whole process and then completely ignore it is a slap in the face. I’m sure Clinton’s backers approach this with the best of intentions, but they must realize that this can only hurt Clinton’s chances, and/or the chances of the eventual nominee.
Like him or hate him, you have to admit that Barack Obama is a helluva talented speaker. And, to top it all off, what CNN’s political pundit Bill Schenider calls the “most sophisticated speech on race and politics I’ve ever heard.”, was written by Obama himself.
You can check out all 38 minutes of Obama’s speech below.
More importantly, in case you have trouble focusing or just don’t have an hour to spend listening to a speech, HuffPo has the .
For those of you not following the story, here it is in a nutshell. Obama’s pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is a nutbag. He has made way too many controversial statements, both racially and politically.
He criticizes “White” Americans and castigates the American government. has this to say:
A videotape of one sermon captures Wright using a harsh racial epithet to argue that Clinton could not understand the struggles of African Americans.
“Barack knows what it means, living in a country and a culture that is controlled by rich white people,” Wright said on Christmas Day of last year. “Hillary can never know that. Hillary ain’t never been called a [N-word]!”
In another sermon, delivered five days after the 9/11 attacks, Wright seems to imply that the United States had brought the terrorist violence on itself.
“We bombed Hiroshima, we bombed Nagasaki, and we nuked far more than the thousands in New York, and we never batted an eye,” Wright says. “We have supported state terrorism against the Palestinians and black South Africans, and now we are indignant because the stuff we have done overseas is brought right back in our own front yards.”
In a later sermon, Wright revisits the theme, declaring: “No, no, no, not God bless America — God damn America!”
Pretty tough stuff to deal with, and really damaging to Obama’s claimed attempt to transcend racial politics. After the furor in South Carolina, Obama has to deal with it at some point. So he did. In Philadelphia, ahead of one of the last big primaries, he held a speech that dealt with race in an obvious way.
Responses to the speech have been mixed. The and both gave ringing endorsements to the speech, comparing it to visionary statements by people like Lincoln and Kennedy.
Even articles that are critical of his speech lend him some credit. The says “Holding a tough hand of cards, Obama responded to Wright’s outbursts with admirable finesse. He downplayed their outrageous, sometimes demented, nature by labeling them “divisive,” a moderate word. He refused to disown his pastor. He couldn’t. Doing so would have seemed craven after their long history together.”
The offers a more complex portrait of his speech, including an analysis of other media outlets.
Media analyses, in the United States and abroad, were overwhelmingly positive in describing Obama’s speech, which he felt compelled to deliver amid a firestorm of criticism of Wright. They also said it had unalterably changed the face of his campaign.
The Daily Telegraph of London called Obama’s speech “a spellbinding display of rhetorical brilliance,” but also said that he would never again be able to campaign as an American politician “who just happened to be black.”
“With this speech, he has become a black man running for president, taking on the mantle of Martin Luther King,” the newspaper wrote. “That makes it a great gamble, a move on to new terrain.”
Writing in The Guardian of London, Michael Tomasky noted that Obama had “seemed, as someone’s one-liner put it, ‘just the right amount of black’ ” – but that he had now presented Americans with a more complex and challenging self-portrait.
“I am sure it helps us, as a society, to hear it all put out there with intelligence and subtlety,” Tomasky wrote. “I am less sure about whether it will help him.”
One of the only truly negative critiques comes from the lovely (read: evil) Ann Coulter. I won’t do her a favour and link to her article, since it’s full of the typical juvenile vitriol we come to expect of the blonde lunatic, the Howard Stern-ette of the political sphere. The same woman who came out and has the gall to claim that she is the authentic post-racial American and Obama is not.
For a smarter conservative critique, we can look to the . That’s not a sentence that is normally written, but in this case it is true. Even they admit that the speech was well written and moving, but that it still dealt with some difficult material. Their argument that the sheer fact Obama had to ever downplay comments like this is problematic. That is difficult to argue with. I think everyone wishes Wright hadn’t said these things. Heck, I’m sure Wright probably wishes he hadn’t said some of this stuff now.
The speaks a little about the speech too, and seems to be overwhelmingly positive. They say that not only does it address the fears and the problems with Wright’s sermons, “But for those who were willing to listen, Obama’s Philadelphia speech provided a context to his relationship with Wright, as well as a fascinating discourse on the role of race in the framing of the U.S. Constitution, the culture of the black church, resentments among blacks and whites, and even the complexities of attitudes within his own biracial family. He spoke of his white grandmother who “loves me as much as she loves anything in this world” yet also feared black men passing her on the street uttered “racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.”
Overall, the speech is full of good points and some bad ones. Obama may gloss over some of the problems but he does do a good job of defusing the issue. One of the more unlikely defenders of Obama and Wright is former Republican Presidential candidate . He suggests (rightly so) that no politician should be held 100% accountable for what those around them say. Huckabee also says that pastors sometimes get carried away in their sermons and often things come out that aren’t exactly how they meant to say it.
He also correctly points out that these ridiculously offensive statements from Wright are not the only thing he’s done. Wright is a more complex man and has done a lot of good for his community. Those things should not be overlooked, but it should also not excuse him from his rants.
I’ll leave you with this little section of his speech.
For we have a choice in this country. We can accept a politics that breeds division, and conflict, and cynicism. We can tackle race only as spectacle – as we did in the OJ trial – or in the wake of tragedy, as we did in the aftermath of Katrina – or as fodder for the nightly news. We can play Reverend Wright’s sermons on every channel, every day and talk about them from now until the election, and make the only question in this campaign whether or not the American people think that I somehow believe or sympathize with his most offensive words. We can pounce on some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she’s playing the race card, or we can speculate on whether white men will all flock to John McCain in the general election regardless of his policies.
We can do that.
But if we do, I can tell you that in the next election, we’ll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change.
That is one option. Or, at this moment, in this election, we can come together and say, “Not this time.” This time we want to talk about the crumbling schools that are stealing the future of black children and white children and Asian children and Hispanic children and Native American children. This time we want to reject the cynicism that tells us that these kids can’t learn; that those kids who don’t look like us are somebody else’s problem. The children of America are not those kids, they are our kids, and we will not let them fall behind in a 21st century economy. Not this time.
This time we want to talk about how the lines in the Emergency Room are filled with whites and blacks and Hispanics who do not have health care; who don’t have the power on their own to overcome the special interests in Washington, but who can take them on if we do it together.
This time we want to talk about the shuttered mills that once provided a decent life for men and women of every race, and the homes for sale that once belonged to Americans from every religion, every region, every walk of life. This time we want to talk about the fact that the real problem is not that someone who doesn’t look like you might take your job; it’s that the corporation you work for will ship it overseas for nothing more than a profit.
This time we want to talk about the men and women of every color and creed who serve together, and fight together, and bleed together under the same proud flag. We want to talk about how to bring them home from a war that never should’ve been authorized and never should’ve been waged, and we want to talk about how we’ll show our patriotism by caring for them, and their families, and giving them the benefits they have earned.
It’s impressive oration no matter if you believe him or not. And in truth it’s hard to agree with the idealism behind it. Practically it may be a different matter. However, I believe that any discussion on race that talks about it in terms of uniting instead of dividing, agreeing to accept flaws in a group’s views and not completely counting them out about it, can only be useful.
Obama declares that “there is not a black America and a white America… . There’s the United States of America.” If only this were true. Though with more open discussion about these issues, maybe it will be.
XXL Magazine has with good old that paints him in a less than stellar light, at least from a political perspective.
Seriously, I’ve never been a big fan of anything DMX stands for, or really any of his work besides some of his short lived acting stints in various bad action movies.
Are you following the presidential race?
Not at all.
You’re not? You know there’s a Black guy running, Barack Obama and then there’s Hillary Clinton.
His name is Barack?!
Barack Obama, yeah.
Barack?!
Barack.
What the fuck is a Barack?! Barack Obama. Where he from, Africa?
Yeah, his dad is from Kenya.
Barack Obama?
Yeah.
What the fuck?! That ain’t no fuckin’ name, yo. That ain’t that nigga’s name. You can’t be serious. Barack Obama. Get the fuck outta here.
You’re telling me you haven’t heard about him before.
I ain’t really paying much attention.
I mean, it’s pretty big if a Black…
Wow, Barack! The nigga’s name is Barack. Barack? Nigga named Barack Obama. What the fuck, man?! Is he serious? That ain’t his fuckin’ name. Ima tell this nigga when I see him, “Stop that bullshit. Stop that bullshit” [laughs] “That ain’t your fuckin’ name.” Your momma ain’t name you no damn Barack.
So you’re not following the race. You can’t vote right?
Nope.
Is that why you’re not following it?
No, because it’s just—it doesn’t matter. They’re gonna do what they’re gonna do. It doesn’t really make a difference. These are the last years.
But it would be pretty big if we had a first Black president. That would be huge.
I mean, I guess…. What, they gon’ give a dog a bone? There you go. Ooh, we have a Black president now. They should’ve done that shit a long time ago, we wouldn’t be in the fuckin’ position we in now. With world war coming up right now. They done fucked this shit up then give it to the Black people, “Here you take it. Take my mess.”
Right, exactly.
It’s all a fuckin’ setup. It’s all a setup. All fuckin’ bullshit. All bullshit. I don’t give a fuck about none of that.
We could have a female president also, Hillary Clinton.
I mean, either way it doesn’t matter. I don’t care. No one person is directly affected by which president, you know, so what does it matter.
Yeah, but the country is.
I guess. The president is a puppet anyway. The president don’t make no damn decisions.
The president…they don’t have that much authority basically?
Nah, never.
But Bush pretty much…
You think Bush is making fuckin’ decisions?
He did, yeah, he fucked up the country.
He act like he making decisions. He could barely speak! He could barely fuckin’ speak!
Can’t be serious. He ain’t making no damn decisions.
Well Barack has a good chance of winning so that might be something.
Good for him, good for him.
Seriously, I quickly lose patience for people with such a pessimistic view of things. It’s just so…boring. And how eloquent that DMX can ramble on for minutes about how he can’t believe his name is Barack.
Plus, I can’t really even understand half the stuff he’s been saying. Even the most uneducated or uninformed person in the US has some semblance of understanding of the election. You can’t walk 10 feet without seeing Barack’s face on something or hearing his name being broadcast, even if you’re a somewhat celebrity like DMX.
So yes, I think it’s safe to say that Mr. Rough Rider himself is a doofus.
These days you can’t throw a harpoon without hitting a story about how is one or the of the presidential candidates. Everyone seems to be getting in on this deal. Starting way back when people were guffawing about how good old endorsed Mike Huckabee, and witnessed a barrage of endorsements from every direction. Stallone endorsed the Huckster’s rival, John McCain. has recently chimed in support of Obama too. Before you knew it, everyone wanted to get in on this: from stumping for Barack Obama, to all kinds of chiming in. I can’t see how it’d make that much of a difference, because I don’t think many people want to take their political advice from someone who kicks people in the face for a living. But then again, I could be wrong, since Norris seems to have given Huckabee the bump to win in Iowa.
Still, how much can an endorsement really matter, if it’s not from a political celebrity? Oprah does have the reach, with her millions-of-suburban-women audience, which could really help Obama. Clinton was polling strongly among women, so anything that takes some of that away can’t hurt. But then again, what about backlash? The fact that the woman-powered Oprah didn’t endorse the first female presidential candidate has definitely upset some people, and may result in some serious determination among the Clintonites.
This isn’t to say that celebrities don’t have a storied history in politics. was a film star, after all. And he’s had more press during this election than half the other candidates (despite the fact that he’s not running, or alive.) I mean, let’s face it. Besides the occasional joke about Kucinich, and the internet’s fixation with Ron Paul, if you weren’t one of the top 4 Republican candidates, or Top 3 democrats, you pretty much didn’t count. People were invoking Regan’s name left and right (pun intended). And let’s not forget good old Arnold in California. Another film star-turned-politician who has enjoyed enormous popularity.
But if you aren’t one of these people, why would your endorsement matter? If you remember from the 2004 election, Bruce Springsteen wasn’t enough to save ‘s campaign. So why all the fuss?
Okay, so for a second let’s ignore the movie and music celebs. What about ? Will they swing the vote? We can ask the Democrats. Toni Morrison, a nobel prize winner, has come out and endorsed Obama. Maya Angelou, on the other hand, went ahead and endorsed Hillary Clinton. You would think that this has to have some effect on some segment of American society. But the effect has yet to be felt. The Salon article linked above provides a pretty interest take on the situation.
The two writers do match their chosen candidates, then. Angelou, with a well-known and colorful life story featuring odds overcome and the triumph of the human spirit, has been embraced as an icon of middlebrow empowerment. With her, you know exactly what you’re getting because you’ve gotten it so many times before, and yet you can congratulate yourself for (mildly) bucking the system. Electing Clinton would make history, but it also promises to bring a familiar presence back to the White House.
Like Obama, with his Harvard degree and pristine, international sleekness, [Morrison] seems too good and too smart for us, the sort of American appreciated by foreigners with obscurely discriminating standards. The electorate famously prefers guys they can imagine dropping by for a barbecue over intimidating intellectuals, but that insecurity has been biting us in the ass for the past eight years.
Step right up and claim your Kennedy. We’ve got plenty to go around.
I think the best part of the election so far has to be the . In terms of the Democratic Party, they’re pretty much the royal family. It’s hard to find a family with more clout with the party and it’s members. Maybe it’s because so many of them are so involved in politics, but their endorsements may really have the chance to swing the Democratic primary for Obama or Clinton.
It seems like they have divided pretty evenly into two camps. But the way it has broken down is fascinating, full of seemingly innocent moves and hidden motivations. On the one side, in the Obama camp, we have Sen. Ted Kennedy, currently the second longest serving US Senator, his son Patrick (A US Congressman), and his niece . If her name doesn’t sound familiar, don’t worry. While she is accomplished in her own right, the fact that she is the daughter of President JFK may carry more weight. Especially because Obama’s camp loves to compare him to JFK. This really can’t hurt his campaign, despite the controversy that has dogged Teddy Kennedy in the past.
Not to be outdone, the rest of the Kennedy clan has sprung into action. Three of RFK’s have come out to back Clinton. They seem to focus on the very things their father ran against, the idea of trusting the establishment versus trusting an untested idealist. And they use very un-Kennedyesque language:
The loftiest poetry will not solve these issues. We need a president willing to engage in a fistfight to safeguard and restore our national virtues.
So what could force a dynasty like the Kennedy’s to split so evenly? On one side we have the daughter of a former President, and on the other we have the children of a Former-almost-President. Well there are some pretty pessimistic theories floating around. Instead of the regular talk of people being motivated by the need to participate in public discourse, we have accusations of selfish motives. People say that Teddy endorsed Obama because Clinton had given LBJ credit for fathering the civil rights movement, instead of . Apparently, this is also a reaction for the negative tone the primary took in South Carolina. Political rockstar Bill Clinton, whose obligatory endorsement for his wife has given her a pretty big boost, may have done some harm by taking the offensive and going after Obama. So Kennedy pushed back, and punished the Clinton’s by endorsing their rival.
And RFK’s kids? Surely they can’t be politically motivated! But yet, people are aiming to dismiss his support for Clinton as purely a political move. If she wins and becomes President, she’d have to resign her seat as a Senator. And who’s nicely placed to take over a seat that was once occupied by his father? Personally, I think that sounds a bit far fetched, but in this day and age it’s quite hard to tell.
Oh but the story does not stop here. Even the Republicans aren’t safe from the Kennedy touch. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is extremely influential in California, happens to be married to a Kennedy-member, Maria Shriver. And his recent choice to John McCain could be the last little bit necessary to get McCain to triumph over Romney. If McCain wins California, which is likely with the Governator on board, that is a huge step on the way to the presidential race.
And Edwards? Or Giuliani?
The former competition plays a really unique role in this election as well. On both sides, the race is pretty close. We have a Romney-McCain showdown, and an Obama-Clinton duel. So, the third/fourth/fifth/nth candidates who drop out of the race, their support may just make the difference. I’d say even more so on the Democrat side. Edwards has polled pretty well, and his stance as a defender of the poor and of labour may resound with the Democrats. So whoever way he chooses may well secure the nomination. It’s a tricky thing, because Edwards is a really strong candidate for a running mate, and he probably doesn’t want to risk alienating either of his potential tickets to the White House. Obama clearly wants the endorsement, and hasn’t really been shy about saying so.
Giuliani’s endorsement of McCain may not really have that big of an influence, but even if it helps McCain secure the delegates from New York, it can’t hurt. Still, his poor showings so far seem to suggest he may not be that much of a help, after all.
So do endorsements matter?
The answer, in short, is yes. Endorsements matter a heck of a lot in the 2008 Presidential Election. I don’t really think people care what Hulk Hogan has to say, and thankfully everyone has ignored Roseanne Barr’s foray into politics, but we shouldn’t discount everyone else just yet. The Kennedy primary should be closely watched, because it’s as likely as not that the Democrats may have to spend more time campaigning there then they would in some of the smaller states.
And keep your eye on Edwards. Out of anyone here, I think he holds the fate of the election in his hands (or rather, in his delegates).