Tag Archives: presidential election


Is Obamamania fizzling out?

Until recently, Barack Obama’s lead in the polls appeared insurmountable.  The presumptive Democratic nominee’s message of change seemed to be resonating with the American public, while his Republican counterpart’s efforts to endear himself to evangelical voters was proving largely fruitless.  In July, for example, polling website electoral-vote.com had Obama leading his opponent by over 100 electoral college votes.  Similarly, the results of a national poll released in mid-June showed Obama holding a healthy 15 point lead over McCain. 

Over the last few weeks, however, Obama’s lead has shrunk dramatically.  Pollster.com shows him leading by less than 70 electoral college votes, with states like Indiana and Missouri – until recently considered winnable by Obama – trending Republican.

Electoral-vote.com paints an even worse picture for Obama fans.  According to its calculations, McCain is leading in the vitally-important swing states of Ohio and Florida and, to a lesser extent, Colorado.  Under this scenario, Obama’s margin over McCain is a measly 3 electoral votes; a virtual dead-heat.  Should the election unfold along these lines, Virginia, the only remaining state in the ‘undecided’ column, would decide the presidency.  Both candidates have a realistic shot of taking Virgina – but it’s hardly the situation Obama expected to be in as the summer draws to a close.

So what happened?  Are people fed up with his incessant, ambiguous demands for ‘change?’  Perhaps.  More likely, though, is that McCain’s negative attack ads are finally having an impact.  Joan Walsh, writing in Salon, notes: “John McCain’s decision to slime Barack Obama … seems to be paying off in the short term, judged by his recent climb in many polls.”  And a host of news outlets and editorial boards have offered similar analyses.

McCain appears to be taking a page out of Bush and Rove’s playbook.  A cursory glance at 2004 polling data reveals a striking similarity between the two election cycles: during the summer of ’04, Kerry led Bush by several dozen electoral college votes and looked poised to take back the Oval Office for Democrats.  However, shortly after the launch of the now-infamous Swift Boad ads, Kerry’s lead began to evaporate.  Of course, we all know how that story ends.

Is a similar fate in store for Obama?  Hopefully not.  Already, he’s started to fight back.  According to an article in today’s Independent, Obama is “now running an uplifting national advertising campaign while delivering fierce attacks on his opponent at the local level in key swing states [Emphasis added].”

While some would say that Obama’s new strategy is hypocritical given his pledge to “transcend the bickering of national politics,” I think it’s about damn time he started to fight back.  Negative campaigns win, whether we like it or not.  And, to be perfectly honest, I’d rather see Obama take the White House with a vitriolic campaign than lose it with an “uplifting one.”

Regardless, if he doesn’t manage to reverse his sliding poll numbers soon, negative campaign ads could be the least of Obama’s worries.


Zimbabwe opposition declares presidential victory

globeandmail.com: Zimbabwe opposition declares presidential victory

In what is potentially life-changing news for a lot of people in the world, The Globe and Mail (among other news sources) is reporting that the opposition in Zimbabwe is declaring victory.

Now that I’ve started writing this article, it seems as if the OFFICIAL results agree. That’s right, the opposition, led by Morgan Tsvingrai, has taken over parliament. According to Mugabe’s government, Mugabe’s party took 97 seats and the opposition took 99, with some seats going to a smaller party also opposed to Mugabe.

Even more crazy, official AND official sources are saying that Mugabe has so far lost the presidential election as well. Now, under Zimbabwean law, if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote than the top two must compete in a run-off. The MDC (the opposition party) is claiming they won 50.3% of the vote, thus avoiding the need for one, but Mugabe’s party disagrees. My money is on them being forced into a run off, because Mugabe still has a lot of clout over the government as a whole and is not likely to go quietly.

The extreme delays in counting the votes has really made people worry about the fairness of the election. Before the election, there was concern that it wouldn’t exactly be free and fair. So far, the violence and intimidation has not exactly manifested itself, which is reassuring enough. Some experts attribute this to the presence of Simba Makoni who has some significant sway over the military as well as having some pretty powerful backers. While he only won 7% of the vote in the presidential election, the mere fact that he chose to face Mugabe may have done something to reassure voters that they can choose to vote for whomever they choose.

There has begun to be some quiet muttering about whether there are negotiations going on to allow Mugabe to retire quietly and with honour. I think that this is probably the best idea, because the ideal situation for ZImbabwe is for this election to go completely peacefully. No one wants a repeat of the Kenya debacle from a few months ago, and I think everyone wants to see Mugabe go with some dignity. Obviously he’s made some serious judgement errors in the last 10 years or so, but most people respect what he did originally to lead ZImbabwe to freedom.

Here’s some of what has happened to Zimbabwe since Mugabe took power:

Today, a third of the population depends on imported food handouts. Another third has fled the country and 80 per cent is jobless. Inflation is the highest in the world at more than 100,000 per cent and people suffer crippling shortages of food, water, electricity, fuel and medicine. Life expectancy has fallen from 60 to 35 years.

As well, something that caught my eye is an interesting little excerpt from a BBC article:

Mr Mugabe, 84, has not been seen in public since the election but Mr Matonga has denied rumours the president had left the country.

He came to power 28 years ago at independence but in recent years Zimbabwe has been plagued by the world’s highest inflation, as well as acute food and fuel shortages.

I wonder why they suspect he’s already left the country?

The sheer fact that the opposition now controls parliament (or at least is able to deny Mugabe’s party a majority) is important news, because it means that some of the more contraversial bills and reform ideas cannot be pushed through. So even if Mugabe retains power as president, he may not have the ability to push through more ideas, like his proposed notion that all businesses in Zimbabwe must be majority black-Zimbabwean owned.

So keep a keen eye on the news the next few days. If Zimbabwe settles down, that means that nearly the whole Southern tip of Africa (Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Mozambique, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) will become much more stable. If so, there is a pretty good chance that economic growth rates will shoot up and maybe help benefit the whole region.

Also, if Tsvingrai wins, expect huge amounts of foreign aid to start pouring in. Britain, the former colonial power of Zimbabwe (back when it was Rhodesia), has been watching this election carefully, as has the EU, UN, and US.